A severe re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran standoff could send global crude oil prices soaring to $180 per barrel by August, according to Jorge León, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy. Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe, León outlined an extreme bull-case scenario rooted in sustained military strikes, physical damage to energy infrastructure, or a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a blockade would halt roughly 20% of the world's oil transit, choking supply lines that carry over 17 million barrels per day. Rystad's analysis suggests that even a temporary disruption would ripple through global markets, with inventory draws accelerating and spare capacity being tested. The firm's modeling assumes a prolonged crisis scenario rather than a brief spike.
Under the projected path, the Strait of Hormuz remains the critical chokepoint. León emphasized that any sustained closure would immediately cut off major flows from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Tanker insurance premiums would skyrocket, and non-OPEC producers would struggle to backfill lost volumes at speed.
Geopolitically, the scenario hinges on a breakdown of recent de-escalation talks and temporary ceasefires. Rystad's León noted that while diplomatic channels remain open, any renewed military confrontation could quickly escalate, drawing in regional proxies and threatening broader Middle East stability. Iran has previously threatened to close the strait in retaliation for sanctions or strikes.
Rystad's forecast assumes no rapid diplomatic resolution or strategic reserve releases large enough to offset a sustained blockade. Even minor skirmishes near the strait could trigger speculative buying and price volatility well above current levels.