The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is under severe strain, with Tehran launching a third day of retaliatory strikes against US military sites in the Middle East. The exchanges come despite a Pakistan-brokered peace process that aimed to end the war initiated by the US and Israel in February. Washington has warned that any renewed escalation could prompt overwhelming retaliation, with President Donald Trump threatening to 'annihilate' Iran.
Gulf leaders, already deeply anxious, have voiced concrete concerns that the recent US-Iran deal fails to curb Iranian influence through proxy groups. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged during his visit to the Middle East that Gulf states 'shared with us some very concrete concerns' about Tehran's regional ambitions. Analysts and Western leaders believe Iran will continue to support militia networks including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
The deal's fragility is underscored by mutual accusations of violations. Iranian officials have signaled readiness to abandon peace talks entirely, raising the specter of a wider conflict. Rubio insisted that any definitive agreement must require Iran to restrict not just its nuclear program but also halt support for armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
The collapse of the ceasefire would risk a broader regional war, drawing in Gulf states already wary of Iranian power projection. While both sides publicly accuse each other of undermining the truce, Washington has hinted at overwhelming force if hostilities resume. The situation leaves allies like the Gulf states caught between competing pressures.
Some analysts caution that Iran's recent strikes may be posturing to gain leverage, rather than a prelude to full-scale conflict. The fragile peace process, however, leaves little margin for miscalculation.