The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that El Niño conditions are officially underway, with forecasts indicating this could become one of the most powerful events since record-keeping began in 1950. Meteorologists warn the climate pattern will amplify existing warming from fossil fuel emissions, intensifying the risk of droughts, floods, and wildfires worldwide.
NOAA classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, rejecting the unofficial term “Super El Niño.” According to Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office, there is a 63% probability that the current event will reach the “very strong” category during the November to January window. “That could rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record,” Cohen said during a Thursday press conference.
The phenomenon is driven by above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Because global oceans are already warmer due to climate change, this El Niño is expected to inject additional heat into the system. The result could be severe disruptions to agriculture, fisheries, and water supplies, with crop losses likely in certain regions and heightened fire danger in others.
For markets and policymakers, the implications are stark. A very strong El Niño often leads to commodity price spikes, particularly for staples like rice, wheat, and palm oil, while energy demand may shift unpredictably. Governments in vulnerable areas have little time to prepare before the peak impact period arrives late this year.
Critics caution, however, that long-range climate models remain imperfect and that the 63% probability still leaves significant room for a weaker outcome. Past forecasts of “very strong” events have occasionally failed to materialize, underscoring the difficulty of predicting complex oceanic-atmospheric interactions months in advance.