Chinese crude oil imports are set to plunge to their lowest level in nearly a decade, with daily averages projected at just 6.4 million barrels this month. That marks an 8% drop from May and would be the weakest import rate since October 2016, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg. Vortexa data points to a similar figure.
May imports averaged 7.82 million barrels per day, down 29% year-on-year and 17% from April, customs data show. That average was itself a 38% drop from February volumes. The sustained decline underscores eroding demand from the world's top crude buyer as its economic recovery falters.
Refining margins have narrowed sharply, with independent teapot refiners cutting runs due to weak fuel demand and ample product stocks. State-owned processors are also curtailing throughput amid maintenance and falling diesel consumption tied to a slowdown in construction and manufacturing.
Geopolitically, China's import slump adds downward pressure on global oil prices, challenging OPEC+ efforts to tighten supply. The group's recent output cuts have been partially offset by weaker-than-expected Chinese buying, complicating its balancing act between supporting prices and defending market share.
While some analysts expect a seasonal pick-up in the second half of the year, the current trajectory suggests Chinese crude demand may remain subdued unless a major stimulus revives industrial activity. The import data also signals a broader shift, as Beijing prioritizes energy security through domestic production and renewables over spot purchases.