A sweeping analysis of roughly 60,000 disaster records shows that nine out of ten Brazilian cities have faced climate-related hydrogeological events over the past three decades. The findings, published in Environmental Research Letters, underscore how widespread extreme weather has become across the country's diverse regions.
The research draws on data from 1991 through 2024, transforming scientific records into a foundation for policy action. Brazil now confronts an intensifying threat as forecasters predict a significant El Niño event for 2026–2027, which could amplify the frequency and severity of such disasters.
Economic and social impacts have rippled through communities, from landslides in mountainous areas to flooding in urban centers. The study's authors argue that these events demand specific public policies tailored to prevention, adaptation and mitigation — not just reactive emergency response.
Without systemic changes, the coming El Niño cycle risks accelerating damage. Researchers stress that the next few years represent a critical window for implementing science-based safeguards across the 90% of municipalities now shown to be vulnerable.
“The data is clear,” wrote the team, emphasizing that Brazil's disaster preparedness must evolve from reaction to anticipation. The study provides a roadmap, but political will remains the open question.