President Trump is leveraging Vice President JD Vance as a dovish interlocutor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a hawkish counterweight in parallel talks aimed at a peace deal with Iran, according to a senior administration official. The success of the negotiations—and the stability of global oil markets—hinges on how effectively Trump deploys each man to balance competing U.S. and allied interests across Iran, Israel and Lebanon.
Vance negotiated the landmark June 17 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran alongside Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, several U.S. sources told Axios. The vice president argued that Trump should sign off on the deal to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stabilize the economy ahead of the midterm elections. Rubio, by contrast, joined CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in expressing skepticism about the MOU and the prospects for a lasting agreement.
"Think of Marco and JD as aspects of the president's personality and policy," a top Trump adviser told Axios. "There's a more pro-Israel aspect of it, and that's Rubio. And there's a more Israel-skeptic aspect. That's JD." The internal divide underscores how the administration's Iran strategy is being shaped by competing ideological poles within the West Wing.
The dual-track approach could produce a breakthrough or deepen paralysis, analysts say. If Vance's faction prevails, it may unlock significant economic benefits—lower oil prices and a reopened Strait of Hormuz—but risks alienating Israel and hardliners in Congress. If Rubio's hawkish camp gains the upper hand, the talks could stall, prolonging regional instability.
Critics warn that this bifurcated strategy may create confusion among foreign partners. "Signal-sending through personal proxies is high-risk when the stakes include nuclear proliferation and global energy markets," a former State Department official noted, speaking on condition of anonymity.