Any future British government will face the same fundamental constraint that defined Keir Starmer's foreign policy: deep reliance on the United States for national security. Guardian columnist Rafael Behr made this argument during a reader Q&A marking 10 years since the Brexit vote. He noted that much of the UK's defense capacity depends directly on the Pentagon.
Behr described the US-UK special relationship as "hard-wired" in defense and security terms, leaving little room for rapid strategic shifts. He expressed concern that Prime Minister Burnham's stated focus on domestic issues could be tested, since foreign affairs cannot be ignored. The columnist acknowledged that seeking greater autonomy from Washington remains a long-term challenge.
A key variable will be the upcoming US midterm elections. Behr suggested a lame-duck President Trump with a hostile Congress might become more volatile but also more politically bogged down. He rejected the idea that the relationship means simply "sucking up" to Trump regardless of his actions.
Behr advised that achieving meaningful strategic autonomy would require generational effort and significant investment. This leaves the next UK government with a narrow path: carefully managing the existing partnership while gradually building independent capabilities. The fundamental calculus of British defense policy appears unlikely to change in the near term.
The columnist's analysis underscores how structural dependencies, not just political choices, shape UK foreign policy. For any administration, the special relationship will remain a constraint as much as an asset.