Thirty-year Treasury yields are projected to surpass 5% by the end of 2026, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey. The forecast reflects growing skepticism that the Federal Reserve can rein in persistent inflation with sufficient speed.
The survey results underscore a broader unease in bond markets about the trajectory of monetary policy. Even as the Fed has signaled tightening, long-term yields remain elevated, suggesting investors expect inflation to stay above target for an extended period.
Bloomberg's survey did not provide a specific median forecast or a range of estimates. The projection of yields above 5% is based on aggregate responses from market participants polled in the latest round.
If realized, such levels would mark a return to yields rarely seen in the last decade, potentially increasing borrowing costs for corporations and homeowners. The implication is that the Fed's current pace of rate adjustments may not be enough to anchor long-term expectations.
Some analysts caution that the survey reflects sentiment rather than a consensus economic forecast, and actual yields could diverge if inflation data softens or the Fed accelerates tightening.