War on the Rocks argues that deterrence in a potential conflict over Taiwan may hinge not on aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons, but on a single Dutch lithography machine. ASML, headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, holds a monopoly on the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems required to produce the world's most advanced semiconductors. Without these machines, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and other leading foundries cannot operate.
The piece contends that this supply chain chokepoint should be central to US deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific, but currently is not. The argument reframes conventional military calculus, suggesting that economic interdependence and technological bottlenecks could prevent escalation more effectively than traditional military posturing. This perspective challenges the assumption that only hard power can deter Chinese aggression.
An analyst cited by Defense News noted that Taiwan's primary appeal in manufacturing lies in the absence of China from its supply chain. The comment underscores the strategic value of Taiwan's industrial independence and its role as a critical node in global semiconductor production. This reinforces the argument that any disruption to Taiwan's manufacturing output would have immediate global repercussions.
Implications for alliance dynamics are significant. If the United States adopts this deterrence model, it would require deepening cooperation with European allies—particularly the Netherlands—to safeguard ASML's technology and production. It also implies a shift in procurement priorities, with potential investments in securing alternative supply routes or accelerating domestic lithography development.
A counterargument holds that deterrence via supply chain chokepoints is fragile: a determined adversary could seize or destroy ASML facilities, or develop alternative technologies over time. The argument may also overestimate the speed at which such a conflict would unfold, assuming rational actors act to preserve economic assets rather than pursue strategic objectives at any cost.