A discarded upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on a trajectory to strike the moon in August 2025, marking a rare instance of human-made debris intentionally colliding with a celestial body. The stage, which has been in an uncontrolled orbit since its launch, will impact the lunar surface at a speed of roughly 5,800 mph.
The impact site is expected to be near the moon's equator, but precise coordinates remain uncertain due to the stage's tumbling motion and external gravitational influences. Astronomers are debating whether the energy released will be sufficient to produce a visible flash, given the stage's lightweight aluminum construction.
Ground-based telescopes may be able to detect the collision if it coincides with appropriate lunar lighting conditions. However, the moon's lack of atmosphere means no fireball or explosion will occur; instead, the stage will simply disintegrate upon contact, potentially kicking up a small plume of dust.
The event underscores the growing challenge of space debris management, even as private companies like SpaceX accelerate launch cadences. Unlike intentional lunar missions, this impact results from a stage left in an unstable orbit, raising questions about current debris mitigation practices.
Some scientists question whether the impact plume will be visible at all, citing uncertainties in impact energy and dust behavior. The event is unlikely to be tracked by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter unless the timing aligns favorably, leaving the visibility question unresolved for now.