Former President Donald Trump reignited debate on the origins of the Ukraine war in a wide-ranging Axios interview published Friday, arguing the conflict likely would not have occurred if Russia had remained a member of the then-Group of Eight. "You probably wouldn't have the war with Russia and Ukraine if they did," Trump told Axios, referring to the 2014 decision to expel Moscow from the group of leading economies.
Trump singled out his predecessor, Barack Obama, as primarily responsible for the expulsion, which came after Russia's annexation of Crimea via a disputed referendum. The former president said maintaining the G8 structure "would have been much better" for international stability. His remarks came days after he attended the G7 Summit in France, where the group is now limited to seven members.
The statement reignites a partisan flashpoint over who bears responsibility for the current conflict, now in its third year. Republicans have frequently criticized Obama-era foreign policy decisions, while Democrats and many foreign policy experts argue the expulsion was a necessary response to Russia's violation of international law. Trump did not address the circumstances of Russia's actions in Crimea during the interview.
Political analysts note the remark is consistent with Trump's longstanding criticism of NATO and multilateral alliances, though it departs from the more hawkish posture toward Russia taken by some in his own party. Polling shows a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Russia's invasion, but partisan divides on U.S. aid to Ukraine have widened in recent months.
This position, however, downplays the broader context of rising tensions over Russia's annexation and subsequent military build-up, which some bipartisan analysts say predated the G8 decision. Critics argue the remark oversimplifies complex geopolitical factors driving the war.