U.S. and Iranian negotiators have gathered in Doha for talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz, as the Trump administration pushes the argument that Iran would benefit more from a nuclear deal than from imposing tolls on the strategic waterway.
The parties gave themselves 60 days to finalize a comprehensive nuclear agreement, but two weeks into that window, they remain deadlocked over the terms of the memorandum of understanding already signed. Currently, the collapse of that initial deal appears more likely than reaching a final one.
After several exchanges of fire, both sides reached a one-week understanding on Sunday to de-escalate tensions in the strait. This fragile truce means new clashes could erupt immediately after the 4th of July celebrations, according to a U.S. official who spoke to Axios.
"We have reached an understanding that we will keep things quiet for the coming week, so progress on all aspects of the MOU can be worked on in a productive environment, without missiles flying," the official said. The same source added that the President has made clear that any Iranian aggression will be met with a stronger response targeting their position in the strait.
The primary sticking point remains the tolls issue, with Washington arguing that Iran's long-term economic incentives under a nuclear pact far outweigh short-term gains from disrupting oil shipments. The week ahead will be critical in determining whether the fragile truce holds or gives way to renewed confrontation.