Donald Trump claimed on Thursday that the United States and Iran are close to signing a peace deal, hours after calling off further military strikes against Iran. The announcement came amid two days of escalating attacks that threatened to collapse a fragile ceasefire. Oil prices tumbled in response, with Brent crude falling from roughly $93 a barrel on optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, stated that large parts of the negotiating text had been finalized, but insisted Tehran would not compromise on its red lines. The semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim dismissed Trump’s claims, saying that “until a potential understanding is announced by Iran, any news from Trump on this matter should be dismissed.” The disconnect between the two sides underscores the fragility of the current negotiations.
Legal and military experts have raised serious concerns over US targeting decisions. Military strikes on June 10 damaged two water storage facilities in southern Iran, including a key reservoir serving roughly 20,000 people in the Bemani district. These experts argue that attacking civilian water infrastructure may constitute a war crime, potentially adding legal jeopardy to the administration's military posture against Iran.
The partisan dynamics in Washington remain fluid, with hawkish Republicans pushing for a harder line while some Democrats demand congressional authorization for any sustained military action. Trump’s decision to halt scheduled strikes appears aimed at preserving diplomatic momentum, though critics accuse him of an erratic approach that undermines US credibility on the world stage.
Public opinion data on the potential deal remains mixed. While falling oil prices may provide temporary economic relief, many Americans remain skeptical of a nuclear agreement with Tehran that does not include verifiable disarmament provisions. Analysts note that if a deal does materialize, it would represent a major foreign policy pivot for Trump, who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord during his first term.