Texas has added more than 2.5 million residents since 2020—a gain larger than New Mexico's entire population—fundamentally altering the state's political landscape ahead of a pivotal Senate race. The influx, driven by domestic and international migration, has scrambled electoral math in a state long dominated by Republicans.
Incumbent Republican Ken Paxton is favored over Democrat James Talarico in November, but the new arrivals and shifting Latino support for President Trump create fresh unpredictability. Rapidly growing exurban counties, once reliable GOP strongholds, now show signs of becoming more competitive.
According to an Axios review of U.S. Census data, Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025 alone, the most of any state, bringing its population to 31.7 million. More than two-thirds of the state's growth since 2020 came from people moving from elsewhere in the U.S. or abroad.
The big unknown is which party the new residents favor—signals are mixed. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston, told Axios that newcomers tend to have weaker ties to Texas' traditional partisan loyalties, making their voting behavior difficult to predict.