SpaceX is set to price its initial public offering on Thursday, with first trades expected Friday, in what is projected to be a record-breaking raise of at least $85 billion. The company's valuation and the IPO's scale have been widely anticipated for months.
Bullish analysts point to Starlink as the primary revenue driver, predicting it could generate hundreds of billions by 2030. Starship's larger payloads are expected to accelerate Starlink's direct-to-cell business, potentially allowing it to dominate global markets either as a carrier replacement or infrastructure layer.
SpaceX's AI business also presents a significant upside, anchored by agreements with Anthropic and Google that together could deliver approximately $2 billion in monthly revenue. The ceiling for this segment hinges on whether Grok becomes a viable competitor to Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini.
The company's core launch business remains a steady revenue source, though its future profitability will depend on sustaining high launch cadence and managing costs. The IPO's success may hinge on investor confidence in these diversified revenue streams.
Skeptics argue the valuation is stretched given SpaceX booked less than $19 billion in revenue last year. The company's reliance on Starlink's unproven market dominance and AI compute sales—both competitive fields—adds considerable execution risk.