A War on the Rocks analysis revisits arguments from Nazmelis Zengin's 2025 article "The Fragility of U.S. Space Power in a Multipolar World," warning that American space superiority could erode without a strategic shift toward adaptability and co-development with mid-tier space powers. The piece comes after President Trump signed Executive Order "Ensuring American Space Superiority" in late 2025, signaling renewed focus on the domain.
The analysis emphasizes that the United States cannot rely on unilateral action or legacy systems to dominate an increasingly congested and contested orbital environment. Zengin's original framework stressed resilience through distributed architectures and partnerships, rather than isolated technological supremacy.
Allied space agencies, including those of Japan and European nations, have expanded their own capabilities in satellite communications and debris tracking, potentially complementing U.S. efforts. Meanwhile, rivals like China and Russia continue to develop counterspace weapons, raising the stakes for cooperation.
The executive order's budgetary details remain undisclosed, but analysts note that co-development programs could reduce long-term procurement costs while improving interoperability. Historical precedents suggest that joint ventures like GPS and Galileo have yielded mixed results in balancing sovereignty with collective security.
Counter-argument: Critics argue that reliance on allies introduces vulnerabilities through divergent export controls and intelligence-sharing restrictions, potentially slowing decision-making during crises. They contend that U.S. unilateral investment in next-generation space assets remains the most reliable path to assured access and dominance.