Shipping companies remain reluctant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz despite this week’s U.S.-Iran peace deal, according to a senior industry official who warned that trade volumes will not return to full capacity until 2026.
Peter Aylott, director of policy at the UK Chamber of Shipping, told City AM that firms need to see a “fairly robust string of evidence” that tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf can leave freely before they gain confidence to sail through the strategic chokepoint. The Strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil transit daily.
Full restoration of shipping flows hinges on proof that detained vessels can depart unimpeded. Aylott cited the need for tangible demonstrations of security improvements before companies commit to normal transit schedules through the waterway.
The industry’s cautious stance injects uncertainty into global oil supply chains, even as diplomatic progress suggests reduced geopolitical risk. Persistent tensions around Iran’s maritime policies continue to shape tanker routing decisions and insurance premiums.
While the deal marks a potential de-escalation, shipping operators prioritize crew safety and cargo security. Any sustained disruption to Hormuz transit could tighten crude availability and pressure prices, though the timeline for recovery remains unclear.