Bitcoin plunged to its lowest level since mid-April on Thursday, falling 3.2% to $73,240, as a bearish technical pattern fueled warnings of a much larger correction ahead. The decline marks a stark divergence from record highs in global stock markets, which have rallied on a tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension and falling oil prices.
According to a TradingView analysis by pseudonymous analyst Xanrox, Bitcoin’s bear market structure is roughly 70% complete. The analyst argues that the cryptocurrency has been moving through a large corrective phase since its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Xanrox warns that a break below the lower boundary of its current trading range could trigger a slide to $44,000 — a nearly 40% drop from current levels.
On-chain data shows little panic selling, however. Trading volumes remain elevated but orderly, and spot BTC exchange inflows have not spiked sharply. Some analysts on social media have pushed back against the bearish thesis, noting that similar flag patterns have produced false breakdowns in past cycles. “This pattern has fooled traders multiple times,” one anonymous analyst posted.
Regulatory clarity remains the predominant market catalyst, according to CoinDesk analysts, who argue that the next major move for crypto will depend on SEC and CFTC actions, not macroeconomic or geopolitical events. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has weakened significantly in recent weeks, leaving it increasingly isolated from the equity rally.
With a market capitalization of roughly $1.45 trillion, Bitcoin still commands about 58% of the total crypto market. Ether remained flat near $2,800, showing little reaction to either the stock-market gains or BTC’s slide. If the bear flag resolves to the downside, a drop to $44,000 would erase roughly $600 billion in market value and push BTC dominance below 50% for the first time since late 2024.