Four days of nonstop negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese officials in Washington this week yielded a framework agreement aimed at weakening Hezbollah and Iran's influence in Lebanon. The deal was propelled by a clear shared interest among both governments, according to six U.S., Israeli and Lebanese sources with direct knowledge of the talks.
The Trump administration-brokered accord is the most significant political agreement between the two countries in four decades. Yet all parties involved acknowledge the vision of peace it lays out may never materialize, with deep skepticism tempered only by the urgent need to address a mutual threat.
Mixed with that skepticism is concern the deal could provoke a violent response from Hezbollah, potentially throwing Lebanon back into civil war. The agreement also appears to contradict some understandings reached between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland, complicating that fragile truce.
Iran had managed to wrap the situation in Lebanon into its recent negotiations with the U.S., resulting in a memorandum of understanding calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon and respect for the country's territorial integrity. The new framework's overlap with those terms remains a point of contention.
Some analysts warn that sidelining Hezbollah without an inclusive political process could backfire. The group's military capabilities suggest it retains the power to undermine any agreement that excludes its interests.