Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory on Thursday warning that the current El Niño event could become one of the strongest in recent history. The agency said the phenomenon “has strengthened over the past month” and is expected to “intensify through 2026” and “continue through early 2027.”
The new forecast estimates an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño during the October-December period, which would place it among the largest events in the historical record dating back to 1950. Stronger events, the agency noted, can “more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,” though not every region will necessarily experience typical impacts.
El Niño represents a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupts normal wind and rain patterns. Its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooling. These shifts can trigger extreme weather worldwide—from heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas to drought in others, as well as altered hurricane seasons and agricultural disruptions.
The advisory arrives as many parts of the globe are already grappling with climate-driven extremes. A powerful El Niño on top of long-term warming trends could exacerbate risks to food production, water supplies, and infrastructure, raising the stakes for governments and industries reliant on stable seasonal forecasts.
Critics caution that long-range El Niño predictions remain inherently uncertain. While the odds are elevated now, the actual strength and duration may shift as new data emerges, and past strong events have not always produced the feared outcomes in every location. Forecasters will continue to monitor and update their outlooks monthly.