War on the Rocks published a detailed war game analysis exploring how Taiwan could employ asymmetric drone warfare in a hypothetical 2029 conflict scenario. The analysis envisions autonomous underwater vehicles positioned on the seabed attacking Chinese troop transports, while swarms of kamikaze drones intermixed with decoys and cruise missiles target invasion flotillas from multiple directions.
The 'porcupine defense' strategy represents a shift toward cost-effective, distributed warfare capabilities designed to complicate large-scale amphibious operations. By deploying numerous small, expendable systems rather than expensive conventional platforms, Taiwan could potentially impose significant attrition on attacking forces while avoiding direct engagement with superior Chinese naval and air assets.
The analysis reflects growing military interest in drone swarm tactics and underwater autonomous systems across allied nations. NATO countries have accelerated development of similar capabilities, while China has simultaneously invested heavily in counter-drone technologies and electronic warfare systems designed to neutralize swarm attacks.
The war game does not specify procurement costs or timeline for implementing such capabilities, though it implies significant investment in autonomous systems and underwater deployment infrastructure would be required. The analysis suggests these technologies could be developed and fielded within current defense budgets through strategic reallocation.
Military strategists note that while drone swarms offer tactical advantages, they remain vulnerable to sophisticated electronic countermeasures and may struggle against advanced air defense systems, highlighting the ongoing arms race between autonomous attack and defense technologies.