Pakistan declared "open war" with Afghanistan in February 2026 and conducted strikes on Taliban military installations in Kabul and Kandahar, marking a significant escalation from previous operations targeting non-state militants. The action represents Pakistan's shift to direct military pressure against Taliban-governed Afghanistan's assets after months of unsuccessful indirect coercion efforts.
The escalation follows a pattern of failed cost-imposition strategies including border closures, trade restrictions, and limited strikes on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan camps that failed to alter Taliban behavior. Pakistan's decision to target Taliban government infrastructure rather than just militant camps signals a fundamental change in its approach to cross-border security threats and represents a logical progression in what analysts describe as Pakistan's hybrid coercion strategy.
The strikes at the disputed Durand Line border area highlight the complex sovereignty claims and territorial disputes that continue to fuel tensions between the two nations. The Taliban's response to direct attacks on government installations in major Afghan cities could determine whether this escalation leads to broader conflict or forces a recalculation of cross-border militant operations.
According to War on the Rocks analysis, the escalation stems from bargaining failure driven by information asymmetries and commitment problems between Pakistan and the Taliban government. The effectiveness of Pakistan's new direct pressure approach remains uncertain as both sides navigate competing territorial claims and security imperatives along their contested border.