Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small Meta team with building a prediction market app, internally code-named Arena, according to The New York Times. The app would function similarly to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. However, Meta plans to let users wager with points rather than real currency, at least initially.
The move follows a pattern of Meta cloning popular features from competitors, as it did with Snapchat's Stories and TikTok's short-form video format. Prediction markets have surged in popularity, allowing users to bet on outcomes of events like elections and sports. Polymarket, a leading platform, processed billions in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing real-money betting on Arena, but no timeline has been set. The company's focus on points-based wagering could help it avoid regulatory hurdles tied to gambling. The app is still in early development, with no public launch date confirmed.
The insiders cited by the NYT cautioned that plans may change or be scrapped entirely. A Meta spokesperson declined to comment on the report. The company's history of abandoning experimental projects — such as its cryptocurrency wallet Novi — suggests Arena's future is uncertain.
If launched, Arena would enter a market dominated by crypto-based platforms like Polymarket and regulated competitor Kalshi. Critics argue that points-based systems may still face scrutiny if they create real-world value or encourage addictive behavior. Zuckerberg's push for prediction markets could signal growing corporate interest in the space.