Cocoa prices have plunged from last year's record highs, dropping from over $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 to about $3,000 to $3,300 today. Despite this 75% decline in the key ingredient cost, chocolate prices for Easter shoppers are up 14% year over year in early 2026, according to Datasembly data. Major chocolate companies had raised prices by up to 20% during the cocoa spike in 2024-2025.
The pricing disconnect reflects how food companies are slow to reduce prices when ingredient costs fall. Over the past five years, the cost of a full Easter basket has jumped 71%, with roughly three-quarters of that increase driven by candy costs. Consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
Most Easter candy was produced months ago when cocoa prices were still elevated, limiting immediate price relief. Chocolate makers like Hershey and Mondelez remain hedged above current cocoa prices after locking in higher-cost cocoa earlier. Companies are also protecting margins after the recent price shock and working through more expensive inventory.
Wells Fargo describes current pricing as a "reset" with structurally higher costs and sourcing risks maintaining price pressure. Jonathan Horn, CEO of Treefera, expects prices to "stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold." Some companies have also reduced product sizes and cocoa content rather than lowering prices.
Relief is expected as supply conditions improve, though the timing remains uncertain given ongoing supply chain adjustments and margin protection strategies.