A steep decline in seminary enrollment is creating a leadership vacuum in American churches, with the number of people training to become pastors falling sharply. Master of Divinity enrollment at accredited schools under the Association of Theological Schools dropped 14% from 2020 to 2024, according to data cited by Axios.
Graduate and college-level enrollment at Catholic seminaries also fell significantly in the 2024-2025 academic year, per the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University. The decline is hitting Black Protestant communities especially hard: enrollment in Master of Divinity and professional M.A. programs dropped 31% from 2000 to 2020.
More than 4 in 10 clergy surveyed in fall 2023 said they had seriously considered leaving their congregations since 2020, based on Hartford Institute data reported by The Associated Press. The trend accelerates as older clergy retire and congregations shrink nationwide.
The United States saw 15,000 churches close last year, compounding the challenge of filling pulpits in rural areas. The pastor role has become lower-paid, higher-risk and less trusted, eroding what Axios describes as a key layer of local civic leadership.
Some religious organizations are experimenting with bi-vocational pastors and lay leadership models to address the shortfall, though it remains unclear whether these alternatives can replace the institutional capacity being lost.