Bitcoin must reclaim $88,880 and hold that level before the market bottom can be treated as credible, according to a CryptoQuant market analyst. The price must close above that threshold and stay there — simply touching it would not suffice. The resistance is tied to the break-even point of millions of holders who bought during the past year and remain underwater.
The analyst criticized the “bottom is in” narrative as premature, arguing the data does not yet support it. The key metric is realized price bands, which track the average cost basis of different holder groups. Three cohorts currently sit above Bitcoin’s spot price, meaning they bought at higher levels and are waiting to break even.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail,” the analyst wrote. That move would put the most recent cohort back in profit and remove the first layer of sell pressure. The analysis relies on on-chain data rather than traditional technical patterns.
The immediate path ahead hinges on whether Bitcoin can sustain a close above $88,880. A failure to do so would leave millions of holders in loss and likely trigger further selling. Bulls need a decisive breakout, not a fleeting spike, to shift market sentiment.
Some analysts argue that large exchange outflows — 100,000 BTC withdrawn in under 90 days — could counterbalance seller pressure. But the realized price band data suggests the burden of proof remains on buyers.