The world's largest airlines are canceling flights en masse as a jet fuel crisis triggered by Middle East conflict tightens its grip. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, 19 of the world's 20 biggest carriers are reducing capacity for May. The firm has revised its initial growth forecast for the year, now predicting a potential decline of up to 3% under some scenarios.
The cuts stem from severe pressure on global jet fuel supplies and prices, which the source article attributes to the US and Israeli war on Iran. This conflict has disrupted supply chains, trapping oil in storage facilities across the region. The resulting scarcity and cost surge are forcing carriers to make difficult scheduling decisions.
Cirium's analysis shows the planned global capacity for May has already dropped three percentage points since early March. The price of Brent crude oil rocketed past $100 a barrel in March before recent ceasefire talks prompted a dip. Jet fuel prices have risen even more sharply, reportedly doubling to nearly $200 a barrel.
The operational impact is significant. Airlines are largely targeting routes with multiple daily flights or those with lower passenger demand for cancellation. This strategic trimming aims to preserve profitability on core, high-demand corridors while navigating the unprecedented cost environment.
For travelers, the widespread cuts mean fewer options and potentially higher fares on affected routes as the industry adjusts to a new, constrained normal. The situation remains fluid, heavily dependent on geopolitical developments and the stability of fuel supply chains.