A U.S.-Iran deal taking shape in the coming days could redraw the global oil order, reopening the Strait of Hormuz as nuclear talks proceed and returning substantial barrels to market. The timing is critical as global oil stockpiles, which have helped buffer the crisis, are being drawn down at a record pace.
Industry experts caution that normalcy will not return quickly. The post-war definition of normal remains fluid, with immediate focus on vessel safety navigating the Strait. Oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin notes confusion over whether Iran will impose fees, and how safety and insurance rates will shake out.
The International Energy Agency, in its mid-May oil market report, provided a concrete timeline: following mine clearance, at least two to three months will be needed to re-establish steady export operations. The process could be stop-and-start as risk-averse shippers work through lingering uncertainties.
For markets, the return of Iranian barrels could ease supply tightness, but only if shippers regain confidence in the transit route. The transition period promises volatility as the industry adapts to a new equilibrium.
Counter-argument: Some analysts warn the deal may collapse amid mistrust between the parties, leaving the Strait closed and supply constraints intact for the foreseeable future.